Is Rhode Island Going to Have a Harder Winter Than Last?

Posted by Wayne G. Barber
Following a winter in which Rhode Island saw record breaking snowfalls (February’s 31.8 inches at TF Green broke the previous record of 30.9 inches in 1962) — what does this coming winter hold?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2015-2016 “U.S. Winter Outlook” last week, an due to El Nino it predicted the Northeast will have a warmer — and wetter — than normal winter.   NECN reported, however “Super Cold, Slew of Snow Predicted for New England by Old Farmer’s Almanac” at the end of the summer.

So which one is it?

Experts Weigh In
NOAA maps show temps in the Northeast being 33% to 40% warmer than usual this winter; precipitation is slated as being normal or slightly up for the region.
GoLocal veteran meteorologist John Ghiorse was similarly reluctant to make any bold predictions.
“As usual, I am very skittish when it comes to seasonal weather predictions. There are so many variables to consider (El Nino, Arctic Oscillation, etc.) that we know about and far more variables that are unknown or that we know so little about. I do, however, sense (mainly from the strong El Nino predicted) that this winter will not be as brutally cold for such an extended period as we had last winter," said Ghiorse. "This is based on the idea that the Arctic cold would be trapped in Northern Canada for much (but not all!) of the winter."

   Ghiorse continued, "As for precipitation, I sense neither exceptionally wet or exceptionally dry. It is usual in an El Nino winter that we do see regular stormy periods but many of the storms are snow to rain or just rain, especially along the coastal plain (which includes Providence but not Worcester). Any prediction of how much snow we'll get at a given location is out of the question but, in general, snowfall should be about average to slightly below average for the season overall (Providence average is around 34" for the season, Worcester around 64"). This "sense" is based, as I said, on the predicted unusually strong El Nino. If that El Nino does not develop as strongly as expected or diminishes half way through the winter ... disregard the above!”
Source: GoLocal Prov. Kate Nagle